Typical assessments of financial losses from the subprime mortgage crisis focus on Wall Street, banks and other lenders, and the real estate industry. Another industry which is tallying its potential losses is the insurance industry. Many different types of insurance can be involved.
Liability insurers
As we have noted previously, errors and omissions (E&O) and directors and officers (D&O) claims arising out of the subprime mortgage litigation crisis could be significant. A recent study from reinsurance broker firm Guy Carpenter attempts to estimate the impact and finds that insured claims on D&O policies could be in the range of $1 to $3 billion, with the likely number towards the upper end of that range. The study finds E&O losses more difficult to estimate, but there exists the possibility that claims against mortgage brokers and real estate agents alone could be in the "hundreds of millions" of dollars.
Mortgage insurers
Mortgage insurance enhances the credit of borrowers by stepping in to make mortgage payments in the event of a default. As defaults increase, so do the underwriting losses for the mortgage insurers. Milliman, Inc. actuary Mike Schmitz described the impact of increasing mortgage default rates and declining real estate values on the reserve situations of mortgage insurers:
More specifically, mortgage insurers are on the front lines directly
underwriting the risk of borrowers defaulting on their mortgage loans,
especially on high loan-to-value ratio loans where there are smaller
equity slices for the borrower. This is a big issue when it comes to
mortgage insurers’ liabilities, since these insurers reserve for loans
that are currently delinquent. In other words, their reserves cover
their forecasted costs for defaults on loans that are currently behind
on payments. Because delinquency rates have been rising, insurers have
more loans in their portfolio that require reserves. Decreasing home
prices and the corresponding erosion of home equity will have a
significant impact on the insurers’ losses for current delinquencies.In
the past, insurers could set aside a much smaller portion for reserves
on current delinquencies because many of those delinquencies would
resolve themselves thanks to rising home prices and refinance
opportunities; even if a loan was foreclosed upon, there was enough
equity that the lender was less likely to experience a financial loss
from that default. With home prices coming down, and with the futures
markets forecasting further declines, there is likely to be a
significant change in both the frequencies and severities for loans
covered by mortgage insurers’ reserves. The impact on reserves and loss
payments will negatively impact the profitability of these insurers and
will have important ramifications for their claim settlement practices.
This will be a big issue for insurers during the next couple of years.
Other financial guarantors
Bond insurers are another type of insurance company which faces losses arising out of the current credit crunch. These insurers offer "credit enhancement" on bonds and other credit products, guaranteeing the payment of principal and interest in the event of a default. A December 4, 2007 report on MarketWatch.com describes the efforts of various financial guarantors to address their capital needs in the face of billions of dollars of payments required on outstanding guarantees on structured credit products like collateralized debt obligations.
Title insurers
Bush Nielsen, editor of The Title Insurance Law Newsletter, described the risk to title insurance companies from the subprime mortgage crisis this way:
Title insurers have incurred increases in claim payments, and face an as-yet-incalculable future loss risk, from securitized loan defaults. Title insurers have loss exposure in certain cases of loan fraud, although typically the lien of the mortgage is valid despite the fraud. Loan fraud losses have arisen from forged flipping deeds and the duty to defend a lender against claims that the insured mortgage is invalid due to the acts of a loan originator. Title insurers have also suffered significant losses in bankruptcy court, when the trustee seeks to avoid (void) the insured mortgage as a preference. A necessary element of such an avoidance claim is that the borrower files the bankruptcy petition within 90 days of the recording of the mortgage. In that sense, all such actions involve subprime borrowers. The emerging concern for the land title industry is new theories by borrowers or classes of borrowers that the "securitization" of a mortgage loan is somehow illegal or contrary to the loan terms, and thus the trustee for the bondholders does not have the power to foreclose. Some courts have entertained such theories very recently.
Property insurers
When homeowners are financially distressed and cannot make mortgage payments and cannot sell a house to get out from under a mortgage, they may turn to desperate means. An upsurge in arson may be related to the subprime mortgage crisis. From an article on the website of Insurance Journal:
Insurance fraud investigators are girding for an expected rash of
arsons by cash-strapped homeowners trying to avoid foreclosures and
ballooning monthly payments as the subprime mortgage crisis deepens.
"Home arsons for insurance money by mortgage-burdened owners are
hardly new. The question is whether a new and virulent spike looms,"
says the Coalition Against Insurance Fraud....
Only a few suspected home torchings have surfaced so far. Samuel
White allegedly burned down his Houston home for insurance money to
dodge a scheduled foreclosure. An African-American, he allegedly
spray-painted racial slurs around the interior to make the suspected
crime appear to be a hate crime.
Suspected mortgage-related home arsons already have jumped 50
percent above the 2006 rate in California, though the numbers are still
relatively small, the insurance department says.
Perhaps the proposed federal freeze on ARM adjustments for 5 years will prevent some houses from burning down.
All insurers' potential portfolio losses.
The financial costs described above all appear on the liability side of insurers' balance sheets. On the asset side, insurers may also see financial losses from the subprime crisis, depending on the exposure of their portfolio to securities backed by real estate mortgages. Once again, according to actuary Mike Schmitz:
For general insurers, the decline in [housing prices] affects the
risks on the asset side of their balance sheet. A lot of insurers hold
mortgage-backed securities, which are collateralized by home values;
thus, decreasing home prices put certain strains on the collateral
that's backing those assets, which can lead to market value declines in
such securities.
In all of these sectors of the insurance industry, attempts to "reallocate" the costs to other parties can and will lead to litigation.